Gold Is Caught Between Technical Sell-Off and Trump Policy Uncertainty
Gold ( XAU/USD ) fell by over 1% on Monday, pressured by a strong US dollar (USD). The greenback remained near a two-year high following Friday's robust jobs report that reinforced expectations of a more cautious approach to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.
We had a better-than-expected US job report, which strengthened the US dollar and the Treasury yields. Gold's move lower here is some follow-through on the stronger-than-expected report', said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Additionally, gold bulls may have closed some of their long positions, so part of the reason for Monday’s decline was purely technical.
Fundamentally, XAU/USD remains under bullish pressure amid uncertainty around the incoming Donald Trump administration's policies. His proposed trade tariffs and immigration policies are expected to be inflationary and could spark trade wars, adding to gold's allure as a safe-haven asset.
XAU/USD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, due at 1:30 p.m. UTC, and Fed officials' speeches. Analysts anticipate a 0.3% rise in monthly core PPI and a 3.8% annual increase. If the numbers are higher than expected, XAU/USD may drop towards the $2,635 level. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may push the pair above $2,700.
"Spot gold may fall towards $2,635 per ounce, a level pointed by a rising channel", said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
Euro Remains Under Bearish Pressure Despite a Brief Rebound
Yesterday, the euro ( EUR/USD ) dropped below the 1.01800 level but later recovered most of the losses and finished the day essentially unchanged from Friday.
Fundamentally, EUR/USD is still under bearish pressure due to the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). This underlying divergence results from many factors, including the comparatively stronger performance of the US economy relative to the eurozone. The latter experiences more sluggish growth and faces challenges such as energy dependence and geopolitical instability.
Most recently, a better-than-expected US nonfarm payroll (NFP) report made traders scale back their US rate cut bets in 2025. Furthermore, with President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House next week, attention has turned to his policies, which analysts predict will stimulate growth and intensify inflationary pressures. ING strategists said the combination of a stronger US dollar (USD) and higher Treasury yields is crowding out financial flows to the rest of the world and is starting to cause problems. 'Using the tariff era of 2018–2019 as a template, we expect the dollar to stay strong all year', they wrote in a note. Meanwhile, Olli Rehn, a Finnish policymaker, stated that the ECB will keep cutting interest rates and should end policy restrictions in the coming months. This means that traders continue to lack any fundamental reasons to invest heavily in the euro.
EUR/USD rose during the Asian session but started to fall again during the early European trading hours. Today's focus is on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, due at 1:30 p.m. UTC, and the handful of speeches by the Fed officials. The market expects a 0.3% rise in monthly core PPI and a 3.8% annual increase. If the PPI report indicates higher-than-expected figures, EUR/USD may drop towards the 1.01550 level. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may pull the pair above the 1.03000 mark.
British Pound Decline May Pause
On Monday, the British pound ( GBP/USD ) continued to fall against the US dollar (USD), driven by concerns about Britain's fiscal sustainability. Gilt yields rose again for the sixth day in a row, but GBP recovered during the afternoon trading hours and finished the day slightly above the important support level of 1.22000.
On Monday, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the government would continue to follow the fiscal guidelines outlined in the October budget presented by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. He expressed his full confidence in her abilities. However, there was little market response to his remarks. Reeves has set a narrow margin for error when it comes to balancing public spending and tax revenue by the end of the decade. Nevertheless, recent increases in borrowing costs and slower U.K. economic growth in the second half of 2024 have made it more challenging to achieve this goal. This week, the market will focus on British inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to increase by 2.6% annually in December, while core CPI is anticipated to slow towards 3.4%, down from 3.5% in November.
The British pound has been a target for global currency traders, as British markets have been affected by increased bond yields. This trend started in the US due to concerns about rising inflation and a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). On Friday, the release of strong US employment data further fuelled the upward trend in global bond yields, as financial markets no longer fully expect a rate cut from the central bank this year. While higher bond yields often support a national currency, U.K. analysts expect that higher borrowing costs could force the government to cut spending or increase taxes to meet fiscal obligations. This could hinder future economic growth.
GBP/USD was moving sideways, slightly above the 1.22000 support level during Asian and European trading hours. Today, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report comes out at 1:30 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected reading will put downward pressure on GBP/USD, while softer data may help GBP/USD rebound from the support level and gain short-term bullish momentum.