2024 has been a year of contradictory events, significant economic changes, and major political shifts. On a positive note, it was the year when global central banks finally managed to tackle inflation, partly induced by the negative and far-reaching effects of the COVID pandemic and partly by the more recent geopolitical events.
After holding borrowing costs near record highs for most of 2023, almost all major central banks started to cut rates in 2024. However, the pace of interest rate reductions varied, leading to a divergence in monetary policy expectations between different economies, which, in turn, resulted in notable exchange rate fluctuations among major currencies.
On a negative note, however, 2024 has been a year of lingering political uncertainty and geopolitical instability. Although investors learned to coexist with the simmering conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, a sense of underlying unease persisted. Adding to this sense of anxiety is the changing political landscape.
Indeed, numerous elections took place in tens of countries around the world in 2024. Investors were particularly concerned about the parliamentary elections in France, the general elections in the United Kingdom (TADAWUL:
4280
), and the presidential and congressional elections in the United States. The market still feels the effect of these elections, with traders and investors anticipating major changes in economic policies and trying to front-run their impact on global assets.
The
US Dollar Index Futures
(USD) has been the best-performing currency in 2024 among the 20 global currencies that Octa Broker tracks. From 29 December 2023 to 13 December 2024, the
U.S. dollar index
(DXY), which measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six foreign currencies (the
EUR/USD
,
USD/JPY
,
GBP/USD
,
USD/CAD
, Swedish krona, and
USD/CHF
) rose by almost 6%. However, the index has undergone substantial fluctuations over the course of the year. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, explains: 'The
US dollar index
has been on a rollercoaster ride in 2024, soaring to new multi-month heights and plummeting to fresh multi-month lows.
Although the greenback looks like the best-performing currency in 2024 so far, the lion's share of its appreciation occurred during the latter part of the year and has been mostly driven by expectations for a major shift in U.S. trade policy.'
Top 20 currencies performance in 2024
Because the dollar advanced higher, most major currencies are poised to conclude the year with negative performance. The only exception is the British pound, which is anticipated to finish the year virtually unchanged compared to 2023. 'The relative strength of the U.S. dollar is only one of many reasons why most other major currencies underperformed in 2024. Other factors, however, are specific to individual countries and a major bearish factor this year specifically has been the lack of political certainty, which currencies do not like,' says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker.
Indeed,
EURUSD
, the most liquid and widely traded foreign exchange (Forex) pair in the world, has been weakened by political uncertainty in the eurozone's largest economies—France and Germany—where political stalemate led to high-profile resignations and early elections. Likewise, when the U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a snap parliamentary election,
GBPUSD
experienced one of the biggest one-day declines of 2024. Moreover, the sluggish growth in the eurozone and the U.K. has prompted investors to anticipate additional rate cuts from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). In contrast, the Fed is expected to slow down its easing cycle, further widening the interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar on the one hand and the euro and sterling on the other.
Despite its safe-haven status, the Japanese yen (JPY) was the most volatile currency among the majors. Three-month implied options volatility for the yen, a measure of trader hedging demand, averaged around 9.73% in 2024, whereas the total average across seven major currencies was 7.46%. '
USD/JPY
traders have had a wild ride in 2024. It has been a total rollercoaster, to be honest. I think fortunes were made and lost here very quickly. This outgoing year has been truly historical for the JPY,' says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker.
Indeed, during the year's first half, the bullish dollar momentum has propelled the pair to a multi-decade high. Then, as rumours of potential intervention by Japanese authorities to bolster the yen began to spread, the USDJPY pair started to decline. A massive sell-off accelerated in late July after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to 15-year highs and announced details on how it will reduce its huge bond buying. Kar Yong Ang explains: 'At that time, it looked like BoJ was taking a surprisingly hawkish stance. Its decision really shook the markets and caused investors to reassess popular JPY carry-trades.'
The commodities' performance varied greatly, and each deserves a separate story to tell, but coffee, lithium, gold, and silver have certainly been the biggest stories in 2024.
Just recently, the prompt-month futures contract of arabica coffee traded on Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:
ICE
) hit an all-time high. It is up some 70% year-over-year (y-o-y), which makes it the best-performing commodity in 2024 among 20 other commodities that Octa Broker tracks. 'Like many other soft commodities, both arabica and robusta coffee futures are almost entirely driven by the whims of the weather. This year, Brazil, [the world's largest coffee producer], experienced its worst drought in 70 years, whereas Vietnam, [another key producer] was faced with both drought and heavy rainfall,' says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. Indeed, according to official customs data, Vietnam's coffee exports in the first half of this year were 893,820 metric tons, down 11.4% from a year earlier. Traders are very much concerned about the 2025 global crop outlook, and prices have reflected these worries.
In contrast, lithium has been the worst-performing commodity in 2024 as the sale of electric vehicles (EV) started to level off while capital investments from previous years boosted production capacity and led to oversupply. According to Refinitiv, the price of Lithium Hydroxide futures contracts traded on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) was down 42.3% y-o-y as of December 13, 2024.
As for precious metals, 2024 has been a record-setting year, especially for gold. The price for the yellow metal has been setting a new all-time high essentially every month in 2024. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, outlines three main factors that have contributed to such a meteoric rise in gold prices. 'It all boils down to three sources of demand: safe-haven demand due to intensifying geopolitical tensions, investor demand due to less tight monetary policy globally, and structural demand from global central banks as part of de-dollarization and diversification efforts.' As many times before, gold has once again proved its underlying value as a protective asset during times of uncertainty and may continue to shine in the months ahead. Although the price of silver did not set any new records, its y-o-y performance was even more impressive than that of gold: +28.6%.
'Perhaps surprisingly, but despite growing geopolitical tensions,
crude oil
prices went down annually. This is mostly because non-OPEC members—notably, the U.S.—have managed to increase production but also because investors were worrying about the health of the Chinese economy, the main importer of crude oil,' says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker.