Today, suddenly, the markets are worried about deficits. The Energy Information Administration says that the world is in a slight oil supply deficit with global oil demand coming in at 103.37 million barrels a day and production at 103.52 million barrels a day. And we are seeing net imports of crude oil fall to the lowest level since 1971 thanks to the US oil and gas industry. Treasury Secretary Yellen is now worried about the Biden administration deficit spending that happened on her watch. She said, “I am concerned about fiscal sustainability, and I am sorry that we haven’t made more progress.” Yes, she is very sorry. This comes against a backdrop where China is thinking of thinking of weakening its currency as Biden hits them with Clean Tech Sanctions on his way out the door. I hope that door doesn’t hit him on the way out, but it seems that Biden wants to make things, shall we say, interesting, on both an economic and geopolitical risk point of view.
Oil is up on this news and could break out of the trading range to the upside if the Energy Information Administration EIA data and CPI inflation data does not derail this. The market will also look for the OPEC Monthly report to see if they confirm the EIA global oil supply deficit.
The API reported that supply increased by 499,000 barrels yesterday while Cushing, Oklahoma supply fell by 1.517 million barrels. They reported a sizable 2.82 million barrels in gasoline supply and a 2.452 jump in diesel supply.
This comes as we are getting mixed signals from oil companies on their outlook for oil and gas going forward. Bloomberg News reported that, “Exxon Mobil Corp. will raise capital spending next year as it adds the $60 billion purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD ) Co. to oil-production plans, threatening to worsen next year’s expected crude glut. Exxon plans to spend between $27 billion and $29 billion in 2025, North America’s largest energy explorer said in a statement Wednesday. Prior to this year’s Pioneer takeover, Exxon (NYSE: XOM ) was targeting annual outlays of roughly $24.5 billion through 2027.
The EIA reported that net imports of crude oil in the United States this year have remained close to 2023 volumes with increasing U.S. crude oil production supplying and an almost equivalent increase in U.S. refinery runs. We expect U.S. crude oil production will continue increasing in 2025 even as U.S. refiners process less crude oil than they did this year, leading to net imports of crude oil falling by more than 20% to 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, which would be the least net imports of crude oil in any year since 1971.
I think that with the coming supply deficit, there’s significant risks to the upside. With Biden trying to make the world a more dangerous place as he leaves office, it’s going to set the stage for potential price spikes.
That is one of the reasons why you might want to get hedged for potential upside moves.
We will see if OPEC continues to confirm the supply deficit and if they do that should mean that we, at the very least, should have a floor in for oil for the rest of the year. We have also seen renewed interest in the crack spreads. They look like they are bottoming and also the bull spreads for both heating and oil and diesel are looking very attractive.
Late Breaking Bloomberg reports that – OPEC cut oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for a fifth straight month, making its deepest reduction to the 2024 outlook so far after agreeing to extend its supply curbs. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries chopped projections for consumption growth in 2024 by 210,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million barrels a day, according to its monthly report. The cartel has slashed projections by 27% since July as it belatedly recognizes the deteriorating market picture. .
Natural gas is bouncing back in a big way as another big cold blast is set to come down. Fox Weather is reporting, “East Coast threatened by 50-mph winds, severe storms amid rapidly strengthening system spanning 1,000+ miles. Along the coast wind gusts of 40-60 mph could be problematic between New York City and Boston. National Weather Service meteorologists warn damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines, resulting in power outages.
Natural gas and power in Europe is in a crisis. Bloomberg reports that prices remain near a 2024 high and subject to intense volatility, potentially complicating stockpiling efforts next year. The region’s storage facilities are now 82% full, below the five-year seasonal average. “If we have a normal winter, the market will be challenged to get back to comfortable storage levels going into the winter of 2025-2026,” said Anatol Feygin, executive vice president and chief commercial officer at Cheniere Energy Inc (NYSE: LNG )., in an interview on the sidelines of the World LNG Summit in Berlin.
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