Oil
prices are on the rise as the Assad regime in Syria falls raising questions about the geopolitical risk factors going forward.
The potential for a power vacuum could lead to some unintended consequences. At the same time the Islamist leader that is claiming to run the country suggests that he is not the same type of guy he used to be and may show tolerance to those of different faiths.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the militant leader that has led the opposition, was interviewed by CNN.
CNN reported that, “Jolani left no doubt that the ambitions of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) – a group that was formed out of a former al Qaeda affiliate – are nothing less than bringing an end to the Assad regime. He spoke about plans to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.” “When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Johannite seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.” But is the radical Islamist vision dead.
Will Jelani allow tolerance or death.
This comes as commodities dip on weak inflation data out of China before rebounding after promises of more loose monetary policy in China to come. We see a commodity price boom if China indeed follows through with the promises of looser monetary policy and the possibility that they will do whatever it takes to stimulate the economy.
Saudi Arabia cut the selling price of oil to Asia to maintain market share and perhaps a signal of weak demand that might be offset against the fact that the fall of Assad weakens both Russia and Iran. Reports that a shipment of oil from Iran to Syria reversed course and went back towards Iran. That should lead to fuel shortages in the country of Syria.
Bloomberg reports that the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria represents a personal defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin and a potentially serious strategic setback for his military that undermines Moscow’s global ambitions. Bloomberg writes, “while Putin gives asylum to Assad in Moscow, Russia is facing the loss of its naval base in Syria — its only hub on the Mediterranean Sea — and an airfield used to supply its operations in Africa. Both installations have been key to the Kremlin’s projection of strength on the world stage and its attempts to rebuild its Cold War-era influence — those efforts, and the bases, now look worthless as Russia’s attention is consumed by its invasion of Ukraine.”
David Tamil believes that the fall of the Syrian regime could be a blow to the United States liquefied natural gas aspirations. The fall of Syria will allow the completion of the Turkey pipeline that runs through Saudi Arabia and Syria to allow natural gas to get to Europe and avoid Russian gas.
The fall of Assad seems to put Turkey into a better space politically as Erdogan becomes the most stable leader in that region.
This comes as the mood for the oil prices were extremely negative after OPEC’s decision to extend production cuts. The market still seems to be betting against a China demand rebound and this morning’s data seemed to feed into those concerns.
There’s also a lot of talk about China and their increasing usage of electric cars which may cut down in gasoline demand a little bit. As we have pointed out before, any demand drop on China automobiles is being picked up by India.
At the same time there were some concerns about rising US production even though the major players in the United States were talking about cutting cap x spending.
In the short term for oil it’s all technical. The fundamentals in my opinion are still very bullish. We need to prove it on the price side and a close above $70.00 might be all this market needs to move up substantially. If we fail to do that we could continue to meander in this trading range that seems to be showing more weakness the longer we fail to break out.
Natural gas prices popped up as winter weather is starting to come back. The predictions last week of warmer for longer seem to have changed to another blast of cold weather that should support prices though we are going to be driven by the latest weather reports.