Investment Education

According to Odaily, the United States will release its September nonfarm payroll report on Friday, October 4, at 20:30 UTC+8. This report is significant as it is the first since the Federal Reserve opened the door to rate cuts with a 50 basis point reduction. It is also one of the two nonfarm payroll data releases before the November meeting. With inflation receding, the performance of the job market has become the Federal Reserve's primary concern.A Reuters survey indicates that nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 140,000 in September, significantly lower than the average monthly increase of 202,000 over the past 12 months. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Despite the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience, avoiding the widely predicted recession. However, the job market has gradually lost momentum. From June to August, the average monthly net increase in new jobs was only 116,000, the lowest three-month average since mid-2020.Last month, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%, marking the first rate cut since 2020. This move aimed to alleviate growing concerns about the health of the labor market. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated on October 1 that he does not want the job market to continue cooling. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in November and December, though the extent of these cuts remains uncertain. Powell mentioned that if the economy performs as expected, there would be two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year.

According to Odaily, the Federal Reserve's losses have exceeded the $200 billion mark this week, as reported by data released on Thursday. The Fed's report indicates that as of Wednesday, its so-called remittances to the Treasury stood at a negative $201.2 billion. This figure represents a book loss, but Fed officials have emphasized that it will not impair their ability to conduct monetary policy.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated on Thursday that interest rates need to be 'significantly' lowered next year. With the Fed's recent 50 basis point rate cut and the prospect of further easing, the pace of future losses may slow, as the interest expenses required to maintain the rate target will decrease. However, before the Fed can resume returning cash to the Treasury, it must effectively repay deferred assets, a process that could take several years.

According to Odaily, active U.S. funds have not outperformed the market this year, with a key factor being their underweight position in Nvidia. Despite Nvidia's popularity on Wall Street, many large investors remain cautiously optimistic about the stock. Bank of America Global Research analyst Vivek Arya and his team recently conducted a quarterly review of semiconductor stock holdings in active funds. The findings revealed that although Nvidia is the most held semiconductor stock in active funds, with a holding rate of approximately 70%, its relative weight is still considered 'low.' Arya noted that Nvidia's relative weight is 0.99 times, significantly lower than the top 16 peers in the information technology and communication services sectors, even though Nvidia's sales growth potential could be more than five times that of these companies. Companies with higher relative weights than Nvidia include Meta, Salesforce, Microsoft, and Alphabet. In the semiconductor industry, companies like Applied Materials, KLA, and Micron Technology also have higher relative weights.

According to Cointelegraph, documentary filmmaker Cullen Hoback and HBO have announced the debut of their upcoming film “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” which hints at potentially revealing the true identity of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.Cullen Hoback, known for his HBO miniseries “Q: Into the Storm,” where he claimed to have identified several authors of the QAnon conspiracy theory, has now turned his investigative efforts towards the origins of Bitcoin (BTC). In this latest project, Hoback attempts to uncover the true identity of the engineer known as “Satoshi Nakamoto,” credited with inventing Bitcoin and its underlying technology.Hoback has teased the documentary, stating, “A few of you might have wondered why I disappeared. Well, I was tracking down someone else who disappeared. Curious who's behind Bitcoin? MoneyElectric: The Bitcoin Mystery drops next Tuesday. It's going to be a rollercoaster.” However, he stopped short of declaring that he had definitively determined Nakamoto’s identity, instead suggesting that the film would be an exciting journey.While Hoback and HBO imply that a revelation might occur, the film’s official trailer and Hoback’s statements do not explicitly confirm that an individual has been identified. The possibility remains open that Nakamoto could be an individual, a group of people, or someone previously overlooked by investigations.The mystery surrounding Bitcoin’s creator has intrigued the cryptocurrency community since Nakamoto went dormant in December 2010. Over the years, several candidates have been considered, and as Cointelegraph recently reported, even the FBI has not confirmed or denied whether it possesses information on Nakamoto’s identity. At one point, computer scientist Craig Wright claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto but later rescinded his claims in sworn statements.“MoneyElectric: The Bitcoin Mystery” is set to air on HBO on Oct. 8. While the rumored revelation of Nakamoto’s identity might be speculative, if Hoback has indeed managed to uncover the truth, the implications could have significant impacts on the financial world.

According to BlockBeats, on October 4, JPMorgan Chase projected that the United States would see an increase of 125,000 in nonfarm payrolls for September. The financial institution also indicated that a 50 basis point interest rate cut remains a possibility.

According to Odaily, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 28 reached 225,000, slightly above the expected 220,000. The previous week's figure was revised from 218,000 to 219,000.The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims for the same period was 224,250, a slight decrease from the previous week's revised average of 225,000, which was initially reported as 224,750.Continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 21 stood at 1.826 million, lower than the anticipated 1.832 million. The previous week's figure was revised down from 1.834 million to 1.827 million.

According to Cointelegraph, banks across North America, Europe, and Asia are gearing up to participate in new digital asset trials initiated by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). SWIFT announced on October 3 that it will commence a digital asset trial on its network in 2025. The trial will focus on experimenting with transactions involving multiple digital currencies and assets.The primary objective of these trials is to explore how the banking network can offer financial institutions unified access to various digital asset classes and currencies. Initial use cases will concentrate on payments, foreign exchange, securities, and trade, enabling multi-ledger delivery-versus-payment and payment-versus-payment transactions.In its announcement, SWIFT emphasized the rapid growth of unconnected platforms and technologies within the digital asset economy, leading to an increasingly fragmented landscape. This fragmentation, according to SWIFT, poses significant challenges to global adoption by creating a complex web of 'digital islands.'SWIFT aims to leverage its unique position to interlink these disparate networks with each other and with existing fiat currencies. This initiative is intended to enable its global community to seamlessly transact using digital assets and currencies alongside traditional forms of value.Cointelegraph reached out to SWIFT for comments regarding which digital assets are likely to be part of its blockchain trials in 2024 but did not receive a response at the time of publication. This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

According to PANews, the Federal Reserve may encounter additional complexities in the October employment report, which is expected to be released before the upcoming meeting on November 6-7. Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at EY, stated that any significant slowdown in wage growth and a substantial rise in the unemployment rate could lead data-dependent Fed policymakers to consider another 50 basis point rate cut. However, Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, anticipates two significant 50 basis point rate cuts in November and December due to complications arising from strikes and hurricane damage.

According to Odaily, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to lower interest rates and prefers a gradual approach to rate cuts. However, this patience will be tested with a series of highly anticipated employment reports set to be released starting this Friday. If there are any new signs of deterioration in the job market, the Fed may be compelled to make a significant rate cut of 0.5 percentage points initially, followed by another substantial cut, even though policymakers currently expect to reduce rates by 25 basis points in both November and December.The latest employment market data, expected to be released on Friday, is anticipated to reinforce a trend of moderate cooling. Economists predict that 146,000 jobs were created last month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. This report is largely in line with the creation of 142,000 jobs in August.

According to Cointelegraph, a United States federal appeals court has permitted Kalshi, a derivatives exchange, to list event contracts tied to US election outcomes. This decision on October 2 allows election prediction markets, including Web3 platforms like Polymarket, to operate within the US.The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) attempt to prevent Kalshi from listing derivatives linked to political outcomes. This ruling came just before the US presidential election, when over $1 billion was at stake in Polymarket as of October 2.In September, Kalshi won a lawsuit against the CFTC, which had previously issued an order prohibiting the listing of political event contracts. The CFTC argued that these contracts involved gaming activities that were unlawful under state law and contrary to public interest. Specifically, the CFTC targeted contracts wagering on which US party would control Congress after the November federal elections.On September 12, the CFTC appealed the court’s decision and sought a court order to bar Kalshi from listing any event contracts until the appeal was resolved. However, the October 2 ruling stated that the Commission could not obtain a stay because it had not demonstrated that it or the public would be irreparably harmed while the appeal was heard.The September federal circuit court ruling also argued that the CFTC overstepped its bounds by blocking contracts on broad public interest grounds if they otherwise complied with US financial regulations. The judge emphasized that the case was not about personal opinions on Kalshi’s product but about adherence to regulatory compliance.