Investment Education

According to BlockBeats, major Democratic donors on Wall Street are intensifying their efforts to urge Vice President Kamala Harris's team to replace Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Lina Khan and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler if they win the November election.Sources familiar with the matter revealed that during calls and fundraising events with Harris's team, these wealthy donors have repeatedly criticized Khan, accusing her of hindering the development of the tech industry and other economic sectors. The discussions about replacing Khan have become more intense since IAC Chairman Barry Diller and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman publicly called for her removal in July.Additionally, some insiders noted that donors from both parties are dissatisfied with Gensler, perceiving his attitude towards Wall Street as arrogant. Billionaire Mark Cuban told CNBC this week that he has asked the Vice President's team to consider him for the SEC Chair position.Despite the ongoing private lobbying, donors are unlikely to stop their contributions over the issue of Khan's tenure. Harris's team has not made a clear stance on Khan's position to the donors. FTC spokesperson Douglas Farrar declined to comment, while an SEC spokesperson stated that their initiatives are aimed at enhancing the efficiency, transparency, and resilience of the U.S. capital markets.

According to Cointelegraph, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has urgently filed an emergency motion to prevent Kalshi, a US prediction market, from offering election betting contracts. This action follows a judge's decision to overturn a previous order that halted Kalshi’s election markets.In a court filing dated September 6, the CFTC requested an “emergency stay” of the court’s decision that overturned its order prohibiting Kalshi from listing its election contracts for trading. The regulator argued that without the court’s detailed reasoning, it cannot make an informed decision on whether to appeal or fully brief a motion for a stay pending any forthcoming appeal.The CFTC emphasized the urgency of the matter, stating that Kalshi is expected to immediately list the relevant election contracts and begin trading as soon as they are listed. The regulator supported its request by noting that Kalshi had already announced on its homepage that “Election Markets are Coming to Kalshi!”The filing coincides with Judge Jia Cobb of the US District Court for the District of Columbia ruling in favor of Kalshi, allowing the platform to offer products that enable people to bet on the outcome of the US election on November 4. Following the ruling, Kalshi published an announcement on its website.Jake Chervinsky, chief legal officer at Variant Fund, commented on the ruling in a September 7 post, describing it as a “HUGE win” for Kalshi. However, he also expressed a desire to see the judicial opinion before making further comments. Chervinsky suggested that the best way to address regulatory overreach is to file more lawsuits.The CFTC initially submitted the order in September 2023, arguing that the contracts involve gaming and activities that are unlawful under state law and contrary to the public interest.

According to BlockBeats, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers commented on September 7 that while the August non-farm payroll report was not particularly poor, it has made predicting the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut this month more challenging.In an interview, Summers stated, 'Although the data does not show significant weakness, if you are concerned about recent statistical trends, these figures certainly do not provide assurance of economic health.' He added, 'Compared to my guesses from one or two months ago, the probability of a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut in September now seems closer.'Summers emphasized that the initial scale of the Federal Reserve's action is not crucial. Officials will closely monitor the development of the economic outlook and adjust policies accordingly. He noted, 'If the economy weakens significantly, they will cut rates substantially. If the economy does not weaken significantly, they may proceed with rate cuts at roughly one meeting at a time.'

According to BlockBeats, on September 7, White House economic advisor Boushey stated that the latest employment report indicates the U.S. economy continues to progress. Boushey noted signs of stable economic growth in the country.Despite revisions, the labor market still appears healthy, reflecting ongoing economic stability.

According to BlockBeats, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised the non-farm employment numbers for June and July. The June non-farm employment increase has been adjusted from 179,000 to 118,000, while the July figures have been revised from 114,000 to 89,000. These revisions indicate a combined decrease of 86,000 jobs for the two months compared to the initial estimates.

According to BlockBeats, on September 6, Morgan Stanley's sales and trading department indicated that the accumulation of positions and significant uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions could lead to substantial market volatility triggered by employment data.Morgan Stanley sales and trading experts, including Amanda Levenberg Goldsmith, stated that stock options suggest Friday's employment report will cause significant market movements. They added that such pricing is reasonable because the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions in two weeks is unprecedented, at least in this cycle.The implied volatility of the S&P 500 index remains lower than the actual volatility, indicating that the stock market is becoming increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic data. Morgan Stanley's sales and trading department noted that options imply the S&P 500 index will fluctuate by 1.1% in either direction on Friday, while ETFs tracking the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 indices suggest fluctuations of 1.84% and 1.37%, respectively.

According to Odaily, Friday marks the last day before the Federal Reserve officials enter their pre-meeting silence period. Federal Reserve's Williams and Governor Waller are scheduled to speak after the release of the employment report, providing the final opportunity to set expectations for the upcoming meeting. With economic growth and inflation slowing, adjusting the interest rate from the current 5.3% to around 4.5% seems more reasonable. If there are no signs that July's weak employment will continue into August, some Fed officials may resist a significant rate cut of 50 basis points. However, officials who were open to a rate cut at the July meeting might support a 50 basis point cut in September if the unemployment rate rises again and job growth further slows.

According to Odaily, Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee has stated that recent economic data supports the possibility of multiple interest rate cuts. Goolsbee also noted an increase in warning signals related to the labor market.

According to Cointelegraph, Telegram founder Pavel Durov has spoken publicly for the first time since his arrest in France in August. Durov expressed surprise over the arrest, noting that Telegram has a legal representative in France to handle regulatory requests and inquiries. As a French citizen, he mentioned that authorities had multiple ways to contact him without involving law enforcement, highlighting his regular visits to the French Consulate in Dubai.Durov emphasized that Telegram is committed to its mission of free speech and expression. He stated that the company is willing to exit markets that do not align with its principles, asserting that their motivation is not financial but driven by the desire to uphold basic human rights, especially in regions where these rights are under threat.This is an ongoing story, and more details will be provided as they emerge.

According to Odaily, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported on Tuesday that Judge Mary Rowland of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois has ordered Oregon resident Sam Ikkurty and several associated entities to pay a total of $209.61 million in penalties. The entities involved include Jafia LLC, Ikkurty Capital LLC, Rose City Income Fund I LP, Rose City Income Fund II, and Seneca Ventures LLC. The court's decision follows the CFTC's findings of fraudulent solicitation and misappropriation of funds, which the CFTC described as a Ponzi scheme disguised as cryptocurrency and carbon investment projects. The judgment requires Sam Ikkurty to pay $83.7 million in restitution to investors, offset by $36.9 million in disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, in addition to a civil monetary penalty of $110.9 million.