Investment Education

According to Odaily, analysts have indicated that the recent European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision did not present any surprises. They suggest that if inflation and PMI data for October and November continue to decline unexpectedly, a 50 basis point rate cut could be possible at the next meeting in December. Given that this rate cut and additional cuts (five more by the end of next year) have already been factored into European stock markets, the current earnings season is more likely to dominate market trends.

According to Odaily, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending October 12 was 241,000, which is lower than the expected 260,000. The previous week's figure was revised from 258,000 to 260,000. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims for the same period was 236,250, up from the previously revised 231,500, which was initially reported as 231,000. Additionally, the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 12 was 1.867 million, slightly higher than the expected 1.865 million. The previous week's figure was revised from 1.861 million to 1.858 million.

According to Odaily, the European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%, aligning with market expectations. Additionally, the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate have been adjusted from 3.65% and 3.9% to 3.4% and 3.65%, respectively. Traders' bets on further rate cuts by the ECB remain steady, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in December.

According to Odaily, James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, has indicated that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates by 50 basis points for the remainder of this year. Knightley explained that the Fed's current approach is focused on risk management. Unlike most central banks that have a single objective of reducing inflation to 2%, the Federal Reserve has two primary goals: price stability and full employment. If the Fed is confident in achieving its inflation target, it may shift its focus to supporting employment.Knightley suggested that a 25 basis point rate cut in November, followed by another cut in December, would be very appropriate. He also predicted that the Federal Reserve might lower rates to around 3%-3.5% by the summer of 2025.

According to Foresight News, Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that Ripple's Chief Legal Officer highlighted October 16 as a significant deadline in the ongoing case between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple. The SEC may overlook this deadline without a Pacer filing. Eleanor Terrett has sought comments from both the SEC and Ripple's Chief Legal Officer.Previously, Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Ashley Prosper stated that October 16 is the final deadline for the SEC to disclose its reasons for the appeal.

According to Odaily, Goldman Sachs has forecasted a series of interest rate cuts by both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank over the next two years. The investment bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts from November 2024 to June 2025, ultimately bringing the target range to 3.25%-3.5%. This prediction reflects expectations of a gradual easing of monetary policy in response to economic conditions.In addition, Goldman Sachs projects that the European Central Bank will begin its rate-cutting cycle in October 2024 with an initial 25 basis point reduction. The bank expects this trend to continue with successive 25 basis point cuts until the policy rate reaches 2% by June 2025. These anticipated actions by the ECB are seen as measures to support economic growth and stability within the Eurozone.

According to BlockBeats, on October 15, Federal Reserve's Daly stated that the Fed's monetary policy remains restrictive as efforts continue to reduce inflation. Daly emphasized that the progress towards the Fed's goals is uncertain and vigilance is necessary. The Federal Reserve aims to achieve a 2% inflation target while maintaining full employment in the job market.

According to Odaily, market sources indicate that the New York Federal Reserve's one-year inflation expectation for September stands at 3%, unchanged from the previous value of 3.00%. Data from the New York Fed reveals that consumers' inflation expectations for the next three years have risen to 2.7%, up from the previous 2.5%. Additionally, consumers' inflation expectations for the next five years have increased to 2.9%, compared to the prior 2.8%.

According to Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again in November, but policymakers are proceeding cautiously due to stubborn inflation. Speaking at a recent forum, Shalett noted that while the labor market remains mixed, the Fed has shifted away from aggressively pursuing its 2% inflation target.Fed Treads Carefully on Rate CutsShalett emphasized that the Fed's focus has shifted to the labor market, indicating that inflation is no longer cooling fast enough to warrant aggressive cuts.Most Fed policymakers are aligned with further rate reductions in the coming months. However, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested that a rate cut might be skipped in November, highlighting cautious sentiment.Economic Data Signals Modest InflationRecent data reflects persistent inflationary pressure:CPI inflation rose slightly more than expected in September, while PPI growth remained flat.September jobs data and other positive economic indicators have shifted market expectations from a 50 basis point cut to a more modest 25 basis point cut during the Fed’s Nov. 6-7 policy meeting.Traders now assign an 89% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in November, with bond markets beginning to rally as inflation expectations are priced in.Political Uncertainty Adds Market VolatilityShalett noted that November 5 Election Day could bring further uncertainty, with polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump tied in seven swing states.She cautioned that no clear election result may emerge immediately, adding to market volatility.Investment Strategies for a Volatile MarketGiven the current market conditions, Shalett recommends investors take shelter in real assets:Gold, commodities, real estate, and energy infrastructure assets offer protection from rising volatility.Hedge fund strategies focusing on market-neutral positions are also favored as a safeguard against unpredictable market conditions.

According to BlockBeats, on October 15, the Argentine judiciary has officially recognized the legal validity of blockchain-based smart contracts for the first time. This landmark decision grants legal enforceability to smart contracts in Argentina, paving the way for their application in various commercial fields such as lease agreements and purchase payments.The first legally recognized smart contract is a loan agreement built on the Cardano blockchain. This contract was established by two Argentine Cardano ambassadors, Mauro Andreoli and Lucas Macchia, involving a four-month loan of 10,000 ADA (approximately $3,430) with an annual interest rate of 10%. Andreoli stated, "We have just signed the first legally and judicially binding contract on the Cardano network that fully complies with the laws of the Argentine Republic." He emphasized that any breach of this contract could be enforced in court, requiring obligations to be fulfilled in ADA.To ensure the legal validity of the smart contract, both parties also signed a supplementary legal document detailing the contract's content, the blockchain used, and the transaction IDs of the relevant wallet addresses. This approach may set a standard process for the future legalization of smart contracts.