Investment Education

According to Odaily, a research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the Federal Reserve's recent decision to implement a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut was unexpected. The monetary policy statement highlighted that recent inflation data has given policymakers increased confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. This move suggests that the Fed's response function has shifted from focusing solely on inflation to prioritizing employment. The report interprets this as a signal that the Fed has a low tolerance for rising unemployment and that officials are unwilling to jeopardize the prospects of a 'soft landing' for the economy. Based on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the report suggests that any unemployment rate exceeding 4.4% could trigger further rate cuts. This indicates that the Fed will maintain a dovish stance until labor market data stabilizes. Looking ahead, the likelihood of a soft economic landing in the short term has increased due to the Fed's more substantial rate cuts.

According to BlockBeats, on September 19, market data revealed that spot gold prices continued their upward trend, reaching $2,600 per ounce. This surge follows the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of 50 basis points, marking a historic high for gold prices.

According to Odaily, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the overall strength of the economy and the commitment to maintaining robust economic development. Today, the Federal Reserve has reduced the extent of its policy tightening. Powell stated that today's decision reflects growing confidence in the sustained strong performance of the labor market. He noted that the labor market has cooled from its previous overheated state. Additionally, consumer spending has shown resilience.

According to Odaily, analyst Anst has highlighted that the economic outlook suggests a scenario of a soft landing. Policymakers have projected a median growth rate of 2% for this year, next year, as well as for 2026 and 2027. Inflation is expected to return to target levels by next year, with forecasts indicating it will be at 2.1% by the end of 2025 and 2% in 2026.

According to BlockBeats, on September 19, the Federal Reserve released a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicating increased confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target. The statement highlighted that the risks to employment and inflation goals are balanced. Economic activity is described as 'steadily' expanding, with a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which remains low.

According to Odaily, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has removed a significant phrase from its latest statement. The phrase, which previously indicated that it would be inappropriate to lower the target range for interest rates until there was greater confidence in inflation moving towards the 2% target, has been omitted.This language change suggests a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's approach to managing inflation and interest rates. The removal of this phrase could indicate a more flexible stance on monetary policy, allowing for adjustments based on evolving economic conditions rather than a strict adherence to the 2% inflation target.Market analysts and investors are closely monitoring this development, as it may signal future changes in the Federal Reserve's policy direction. The omission of the phrase could lead to increased speculation about the timing and magnitude of potential interest rate adjustments.The Federal Reserve's decision to alter its communication strategy comes amid ongoing economic uncertainties and varying inflationary pressures. By not explicitly tying interest rate decisions to the 2% inflation target, the FOMC may be seeking to provide itself with greater flexibility to respond to a range of economic scenarios.Overall, the removal of this key phrase from the FOMC statement marks a notable shift in the Federal Reserve's messaging and could have significant implications for future monetary policy decisions.

According to Odaily, the Federal Reserve has announced a decision to lower the upper limit of the interest rate to 5% as of September 18, down from the previous 5.50%. The expected rate was 5.25%. The Fed's dot plot indicates that the median federal funds rate is projected to be 4.4% by the end of 2024, a decrease from the previous forecast of 5.1%. This marks the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a short-term increase in spot gold prices by nearly $20 and a 40-point drop in the U.S. dollar index (DXY). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement noted that the risks to employment and inflation targets are balanced.

According to Odaily, the Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. This marks the first rate cut since March 2020.

According to Odaily, the Carlyle Group anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts by the end of this year, followed by a pause to assess the impact. The private equity firm noted signs of a 'vibrant' economy. CEO Schwartz mentioned that monetary policy has already helped curb inflation, and after the expected rate cuts in 2024, the Fed might only need to cut rates once more next year. Schwartz also highlighted that trading activity in the U.S. has begun to improve and is likely to continue increasing unless there is an unexpected market disruption. In the first half of this year, Carlyle's allocation and realization of funds have increased, although these metrics remain well below peak levels.

According to Odaily, Commerzbank analysts have indicated that following the European Central Bank's decision to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points last week, several other central banks are set to announce their policy decisions this week. Most of these decisions are likely to maintain current interest rates, with one significant exception. If the Federal Reserve does not begin its rate-cutting cycle on Wednesday, it would be a major surprise.Analyst Volkmar Baur noted, 'At the start of this week, the market anticipated a slightly higher than 50% chance of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Our economists still expect a 25 basis point cut, which is well justified.' He added, 'However, a small initial step does not rule out larger moves in the future. This is why the current risk leans towards a weaker dollar.'